The kicking that the Labour Party expected at the local elections materialised as expected – and was as bad as expected.
Areas in the Midlands and North that had long turned to Labour for political representation chose instead to put their faith in the insurgent Reform UK. Meanwhile, other Labour strongholds – notably in London – turned away from Labour and put their faith in the Green Party, and its new, charismatic leader.
In office, Labour started in 2024 with an assessment that the political flank they needed to guard was to the right, against Reform. This approach brought policies such as reducing the Aid budget to boost spending on Defence and hard language on immigration. It failed to prevent voters in the so-called Red Wall from turning to Reform UK. The Government has also stated its clear commitment to fiscal rules and, initially, set out to achieve these by reducing spending: Through changes to the winter fuel allowance, reducing the benefits bill and maintaining the two-child benefit cap. They have u-turned on all of these under pressure from Labour backbenchers and, while the Chancellor has maintained her fiscal rules, they have been met by tax rises which, many would argue, are working directly against economic growth. Not only has the Prime Minister been forced into Government by u-turn in the face of resistance by MPs on the left of his Party – he has lost votes to the left as younger voters are tempted by the siren calls of the Greens. While many have doubts about the workability of Zak Polanski’s economic policy, it is undeniable that he is appealing to people who have felt ignored and forgotten.
There is a strong case for saying that, with wars in the Middle East and Europe, a hostile American president and high national debt, where payments on the debt interest are the third highest item of government spending, any Prime Minister would have struggled. Nonetheless, on the basis that ‘to govern is to choose’ it is clear that Keir Starmer’s position has been made more difficult by his political lack of direction.
Wes Streeting has fired the starting gun in a possible leadership race, with Andy Burnham seeking to join the line-up. We will see what solutions he and other contenders put forward as an alternative vision for the future and whether the electorate is in the mood to give another Labour Prime Minister the benefit of the doubt.
The local elections have been the catalyst, though not the underlying cause, for this series of events. What was notable about so much of the messaging – particularly from the insurgent Reform and Green parties – was that it largely focused on national, and sometimes international issues: The war in Gaza, immigration and the cost of living. Where development featured it was largely grounded in undertakings about the delivery of affordable housing – an issue which has been steadily rising up the agenda in the time I have worked in my industry. Planning and development are, for Labour members and supporters, relatively uncontroversial. Redwood will be watching closely to understand the extent to which they are a factor in any Labour leadership election – but the current political picture suggests that the approach will not change much under a new Prime Minister. What will need to change, if No. 10 becomes home to a new occupant, is the narrative, the story and sense of direction.
Gabriel Abulafia – Head of Political & Stakeholder Engagement, Redwood
