A Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite walk into a bar, and the barman asks: “What’ll you have, Mr Burnham?”
With Andy Burnham’s premiership coming to the end of its fourth week, we can start to assess how much truth is in this well-worn joke (like all jokes, there’s a kernel of truth about it), what direction he’s taking the country in and what this means for the real estate industry.
Let’s start with some topline points:
- He’s a better communicator than his predecessor: He’s relatable, comfortable in his own skin and has an easy, approachable style that comes across well on social media. Among many examples is this Instagram post where he and John Healey, the new Chancellor, are encouraging people to support their local pubs. Communication isn’t everything, but it matters, and it looks as if the public is responding positively to Burnham’s ability to communicate well.
- He has a clear idea of what he’s about: Or, certainly, clearer than on the two previous occasions that he tried to become Leader of the Labour Party. His time outside Westminster has left him with a strong understanding about where his politics sit on the Labour spectrum – in his speech at the People’s History Museum in June he stated that his philosophy of Manchesterism is “don’t leave everything to the market, set higher ambitions for places, set a vision for good growth and give people jobs and homes”. He rejects 1980s-style ‘trickle-down economics’ as advocated by Margaret Thatcher and President Reagan. Crucially, he has also become an ardent advocate of devolution. For anyone who doubts his sincerity on devolution it’s worth reading Head North, which he co-wrote with Steve Rotherham (the Mayor of the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority) and listening to the interview with him and Andy Street (former Tory Mayor for the West Midlands Combined Authority) on The Rest is Politics. These convey a strong sense of anger at the way the North has been treated by the UK Central Government over decades as well as his strong belief in collaborative working between different levels of government, between public and private and between political parties.
- He has ‘read the room’ accurately: While the economic reality facing the UK has not changed, Burnham understands that the electorate feel they need some support. He has offered “a bit of breathing space” through “everyday fixes” such as reducing bus fares, reducing VAT on electricity and “ending subscription traps”. He’s seeking to gain maximum political capital for each pound the Government spends on these measures through, for example, his current Cost of Living tour. Aware that he’s not got much budget ‘wriggle room’, he wants to send a clear message that “I get it and I’m doing what I can” before some inevitable, hard decisions come down the line.
But what of MHCLG, the Department that’s most of interest to our industry? Well, the Cabinet reshuffle suggests that there won’t be significant change to its approach to planning: Angela Rayner is back as Secretary of State and Matthew Pennycook, crucial to the nuts and bolts of delivering government planning policy, is still Minister of State for Housing – the longest-serving in the post in opposition and government for 25 years. There were some indications during the Makerfield by-election (in response to lobbying by a local group) that Burnham might look again at Green Belt policy, but there is no indication yet of any change in policy. At present, Burnham’s focus is on devolution. This is what he really cares about, and this is the area of policy through which the development industry can potentially play a transforming role for the economy. Burnham sincerely believes that devolving powers, budgets and enabling regions to keep a greater share of income tax receipts, gives them ‘skin in the game’ and brings greater willingness and innovation in a wide range of policy areas, including development.
He also ‘gets’ the importance of the way that people perceive their local areas and the way this shapes their views about the state of the nation. This philosophy is behind his recent announcement of new powers for councils to limit vape and betting shops on local high streets – having too many is seen to have a negative impact.
And the result? The recent opinion polls suggest that he’s bringing back into the Labour fold some of those who voted for the Party at the 2024 General Election. Notably, according to polling from More in Common, he’s largely taken support away from the Greens and the Lib Dems. Unlike Tony Blair, Burnham is not going to be bringing over former Tory voters – his is a left-wing electoral coalition. In policy terms, this means it would be unwise to look for deregulation or lower taxation from Burnham’s premiership. It is clear to him who his political friends are – and they’re on the left.
But it’s early days, “a week is a long time in politics” (Harold Wilson) and “events, dear boy, events” (Harold Macmillan). Burnham faces major challenges on the economy and a range of policy areas as well as some some formidable opponents: Nigel Farage is damaged by funding issues and his Count Binface-off, but is still a political ‘rainmaker’. Kemi Badenoch is getting into her stride. Zak Polanski is on the back foot but is also an able communicator. In addition to these and other challenges there are those who point out that Burnham has never said “No” to anyone on any policy of significance. He has made a good start and seems to be winning back the confidence of many former Labour voters. He’s also clear about his agenda and how he wants to achieve change. But, on the understanding that “to govern is to choose” he will, by definition, need to be able to say “No”, explain why and still bring people with him.
Blog by Gabriel Abulafia
Andy Burnham – Andy Burnham ©House of Commons
