If it looks like a re-launch and feels like a relaunch, then it must be a re-launch.
In the past week the development industry has been getting to grips with the loss of its Secretary of State amid sizeable changes in the Cabinet.
What do these changes mean?
The Government’s position on planning and development is not going to change significantly. They still want to encourage more development and so the emphasis on getting local plans in place and housing delivery will remain post-reshuffle. The new Secretary of State, Steve Reed, has promised to “Build baby, build” and will be working with the industry to understand what the Government can do to further unlock development. This seasoned politician – Leader of Lambeth Council before he became an MP in 2012 – will find his political skills tested as he settles into the job. In particular, it will be interesting to see how he tackles ongoing issues with the BSA – a sensitive political judgement given the Grenfell tragedy and the fact that safety in tall buildings is likely to resonate with the Labour core vote.
Labour’s approach to planning has a number of fundamental underpinning factors: Development and house building will help to boost economic growth, Labour’s voters at the last election were much more likely to be young and be either renting or have a mortgage, the Labour vote is much smaller in areas where development is sensitive (like the Home Counties) – so, politically, more development involves a lot of gain and not much pain for a Labour Government. As an individual policy area, their purpose is clear and the politics of it are well thought through.
But, if you get the big decisions wrong …
… smaller issues like planning and development get pushed into the background in voters’ minds. In my view Starmer’s Government has three major problems:
1) They weren’t clear about the state of the country’s economic problems at the General Election last year and so they have no mandate for the kind of radical change that’s needed. There was a black hole in the books and there had been some fancy budgetary footwork from their predecessors, but this does not account for the fact that the third biggest item of Government spending is paying the interest on our national debt.
2) There’s no narrative (or no sufficiently compelling narrative) for where we’re going and why the Government’s decisions are necessary.
3) Starmer does not seem to be proceeding with a clear idea about who ‘his people’ are – ie what electoral coalition does he want to keep together and vote for him at the next General Election. Those people need to feel that the Government is looking after them and actively seeking to make their lives better.
How Starmer is trying to turn the tide
Changes in the reshuffle and, preceding that, within Starmer’s team highlight the decision that No.10’s team have taken about how to proceed: He has bolstered his capacity to be involved in budgetary decisions (bringing expertise from the Bank of England and the Treasury into No.10). He has also doubled down on the growth agenda – the gamble is that, if people feel better off and see the public realm improving, the mood will shift. Finally, he has moved Shabana Mahmood to the Home Office with a view to getting on the front foot over the immigration issue. Only Nigel Farage and Reform benefit politically when immigration is on the front pages – Starmer wants to diminish it as an issue.
IF his approach succeeds, he will face another issue. Labour has been losing much support to the left as well as to the Reform Party. Tackling immigration is important for stemming the losses of votes to Reform and for getting back on the front foot, being seen to drive the national agenda. He will also be looking closely at his left flank, though, and understanding how to win back and keep those voters. If he tacks left, the development industry can expect a rise in prominence on issues such as affordable housing and gentrification.
Ministers have their work cut out. No pressure or anything …
If you are interested in attending one of our regular Politics of Planning briefings, please email me at gabriel@redwoodcomms.co.uk.
Image credit: Keir Starmer ©House of Commons
