We must not forget that, at the centre of the scandal that has engulfed the Government this week is a terrible human tragedy: Young women and girls – we don’t know how many – trafficked by a man who built around him a network of the world’s rich and powerful, including someone who was until recently the UK’s Ambassador to the United States.
The political fallout from the scandal will last many more years and will continue to shock. Right now, the UK public’s attention is focussed on the ramifications for the UK Government and the Prime Minister. Along with Peter Mandelson, the scandal has ended the careers of Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s Chief of Staff and Tim Allan, No. 10’s Director of Communications. More will surely follow.
The politics of Starmer’s predicament goes beyond the massive failure of judgement in appointing Mandelson to the role of Ambassador in the first place. It has its roots in the many misjudgements and u-turns that have bedevilled this Government, which are themselves grounded in the Government’s lack of a political vision, strategy and clear idea of the voters that it wishes to cultivate to maintain the electoral coalition that brought it to power.
Any government would have struggled with the situation that Starmer inherited: Inflation, the war in Ukraine, declining trade abroad, ballooning welfare and health bills, soaring debt, the interest on which is now the third highest item of government spending, a housing crisis and many areas of policy demanding higher spending. The Prime Minister knew the situation he would be facing as he entered No. 10 in July 2024. His view was that people wanted competent government, sensible decision-making, proper processes in sharp contrast to the showmanship of his charismatic but flawed predecessor.
He was right that people want competent government. The Government has put in place many measures and initiatives in pursuit of growth, many of which are of close interest to the development industry: Major changes to planning, an industrial strategy, devolution to harness the potential of the UK’s regions and major transport investment. But these changes will take time to have an impact.
People also want to know that their leaders understand the challenges the nation faces, have a plan and understand their daily lives. This latter point is crucial because any successful political leader needs to understand the people it wishes to have in its electoral coalition, have them at the forefront of every decision and communicate with them clearly. The dozen-plus u-turns over the past 18 months are testament to the fact that the Government has not got right this crucial part of governing. The changes that have been relevant to the development industry – planning reform, revisions to the NPPF etc – have been relatively uncontroversial in Labour’s electoral coalition. Its undoing has lain in the many other areas of economic policy – winter fuel allowance, welfare changes, business rates for pubs to name but a few – that have not been explained, have been resisted and then reversed at huge cost. Unable to get any measures to control the welfare bill through Parliament – by far the highest area of government spending – Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are prisoners of their own backbenchers.
Starmer’s position is helped by the fact that there is no obvious successor: Andy Burnham has been blocked from the Gorton & Denton by-election, Angela Rayner is damaged by her tax affairs and Wes Streeting is now also damaged by his proximity to Mandelson. The public support he has received from the cabinet and a constructive meeting with the Parliamentary Labour Party seem to have won him a reprieve.
Some of Labour’s rivals are developing narratives that show they understand their own target electoral coalitions: Nigel Farage with his promise of a root-and-branch shake-up of the British state and the Greens’ Zack Polanski, whose message boils down to “I understand why you feel the cards are stacked against you”. Perhaps Starmer will rise to the challenge and start to win back the electorate. Whoever prevails, one thing has become clear: People want competent government but they also want a narrative, to know that their leaders understand their lives and that they have a clear vision for the future.
Keir Starmer ©House of Commons
