Party conferences are known for their late nights, the ‘merch’ and beige food but they also provide broad indications of each party’s direction. As the party conference season draws to a close, three members of Redwood’s team highlight the key takeaways from the political parties shaping the UK’s politics in the wake of the General Election.
Labour Party Conference 2024 – The politics of waiting with bated breath
Like any new government, Labour is learning that actually doing things is much harder than talking about doing things. As a politician in government, discussions about whether or not you bought your own suit or whose apartment you stayed in become matters of public interest once you start having to make decisions that affect people’s lives. They are not important in the grand scheme of things but, if they start to erode your authority or political capital, they start to matter.
The Government’s authority and political capital matter a great deal for the development industry. The Government has invested a lot of political capital in getting Britain building and their capacity to back words with actions is important in getting local plans in place, planning applications approved and spades in the ground.
Leaving Lord Alli’s largesse to one side, the Government’s general direction and how it manages the politics of taxing and spending will have the most significant effect on its authority and political capital. Speeches from the Prime Minister, Chancellor and other Cabinet ministers have made the picture a little clearer but, as David Blunkett has commented, the problem has been that the Labour Conference took place before the Budget and so we cannot know exactly how they will square the circle of the £22 billion ‘black hole’ and drive economic growth.
We know that some taxes will be going up and Starmer gave very clear indications that major improvements to public services must rest fundamentally on reform rather than more money. We know that Rachel Reeves believes that the key lessons of the last ten years’ upheaval is that people expect their Government to protect them from international economic forces – the “Age of Uncertainty”, as she calls it.
All of this is consistent with what she has said for several years. That’s fine, Rachel, we get it. £22 billion etc etc. Now let’s see your industrial strategy and your Budget so we understand the direction we’re heading in.
The Conservative Party Conference – which way now?
The Conservative Party conference has been focused on one thing, the leadership election. Tory members are still bruised from the General Election result and the fact that the last two leaders they actually chose were effectively forced out by MPs. Having worked in the last parliament, I don’t remember such a big disconnect between the Parliamentary Party and paying Conservative members. Now, I’m not sure how a leadership campaign that has arguably already gone on too long might fix that, but it’s interesting to see each candidate make their pitch to the Tory faithful. There was heavy focus on Labour’s cuts to the winter fuel payments, building more houses, and lowering net migration. But how did the runners fare at conference? Let’s address them in turn:
- Robert Jenrick: Robert Jenrick came into conference season with a target on his back due to the lead he has with MPs. However, if he was looking for his David Cameron-esque launch, it didn’t come. Whilst nobody could have called his conference a bad one, he failed to maintain the high momentum he has set so far in this contest.
- Kemi Badenoch: If Kemi Badenoch is one thing, she’s a tough talker. Her speech was laden with ‘red meat’ that Tory party members will be very happy with. However, there were a few slips in her campaign that have left room for thought. Her comments on maternity pay suggesting it was ‘excessive’ and that some civil servants are so bad they should be in prison certainly caused a stir.
- Tom Tugendhat: Tom certainly won the branded merch war with offers of ‘Tugen-hats’ and even ‘Tugen-tan’ but, whilst this is good for creating a buzz, does it win a leadership election? There are some who still question whether he is truly ready for the biggest job in Opposition, and his middle ground approach is unlikely to be a fan favourite with members. That said, the campaign is so close it’s still anybody’s race.
- James Cleverly: The one candidate who really nailed what conference is all about was James Cleverly. Leadership elections are all about momentum and James seems to have hit it at a crucial time. Whilst he was a bit behind the front runners of Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch in MPs’ support, his impressive performance will have made undecided members and MPs stop and think. He’s the most experienced at the top jobs, and clearly the best orator of the four candidates. Definitely the one to watch.
One thing all the candidates agreed on was the need to attract younger voters to the Conservative party. Data from a previous Lord Ashcroft Poll showed 14% of 18-24 and 10% of 25–34-year-olds voted for the Conservative Party. All the candidates agreed that a key issue for younger voters was a lack of affordable housing and the difficulty of making that first step onto the property ladder – after all, why should someone vote Conservative if they have nothing to conserve? There was a shift in tone on the issue raising the possibility that the next Conservative leader, whoever they are, might be a bit more YIMBY than the previous administration. The $64,000-dollar question is whether they would act on YIMBY sentiments in the face of opposition from local Conservative activists and councillors. Only time will tell.
And what about the others? How do the smaller UK-wide parties make their mark?
Chris Kirtley
The Liberal Democrats – defenders of the Green Belt
In 2010, the Lib Dems were the party of young people, many of them students, attracted by their progressive politics and their promise to end tuition fees. In 2024, they are the mouthpiece of the Home Counties and defenders of the totemic Green Belt.
At an Institute for Government (IfG) fringe event at the Liberal Democrats conference, Lib Dem MPs Max Wilkinson and Lee Dillon restated the party’s commitment to affordable housing that benefits the wider community. As the third party there are fewer awkward questions about how that affordable housing would be funded. Ed Davey’s parliamentary party, now 72 strong, earned the trust of countless middle-class, conscientious former Tories who will fear for their rural homes as Angela Rayner wages war on the housing crisis.
It will be difficult for the Lib Dems to replicate this year’s success at the next election; if they fail to stand by their voters’ concerns, they will have no chance. Gideon Amos, recently appointed Lib Dem spokesperson for Housing and Planning, reiterated the party’s commitment to “protecting precious green spaces.”
Reform – Red Wall insurgents led by free marketeers
Whilst all the major political parties acknowledge that the issue of housing is one of supply and demand, the majority of solutions offered by Labour, Conservative, or the Lib Dems either focus on expanding demand (LISAs, Help-to-Buy, Stamp Duty relief etc), or expanding supply (broadly expanding the delivery of new housing across the UK) to reduce the average house price or rental cost. Reform policies stand in sharp contrast, aiming to reduce the demand curve through immigration reform. Arguing that rising immigration levels are driving housing demand – largely prime rental and sale locations such as Zone 1 & 2 London and Manchester – they have carefully framed a reduction in immigration numbers as a concurrent policy solution to reducing housing demand. As Reform’s electoral campaigning demonstrated, the targeting of this messaging has been younger voters – and those entering onto the property ladder for the first time.
Having run Labour close in many corners of the Country – they came second to Labour in 89 seats – they will try to erode the political capital of Starmer’s seismic, albeit loveless, majority. A lot of this capital has been staked on housing; Farage and his four horsemen will be ready to ambush any falter or failure as the Government strives for economic growth – ready to demonstrate that they, and not Labour, have the community’s best interests at heart in those 89 seats.
The Green Party – Rural idyl meets young, urban idealists
The Green Party has an interesting problem – and, in many ways, a good one. They have, traditionally, drawn their support from urban areas – the Camdens, Brightons and Bristols of this world. In the past few years, they have made a lot of gains in rural areas where former Tories have been attracted to their anti-Green Belt development messaging. This leaves them with an interesting coalition to keep together. They talk a lot about affordable and social housing – which was reflected at their conference – but not much about how this would be paid for. As a smaller political party they do not get much scrutiny but, as their new MPs make their mark, their proposals and their new coalition may come under the spotlight.
